Donald Trump will win reelection in 2020. This forecast is not based on variable and inherently unpredictable factors like polls, the state of the economy, or whoever wins the Democratic nomination for president. It is based on historical trends as well as fundamental differences in the philosophy of the Republican and Democratic parties, and why the philosophy of the Republicans meshes much better with that of the American people. This is according to Timothy Arends who despite most polling data, successfully predicted in 2016, two weeks before the general election, a big win for Donald Trump.
According to him, the main reasons why Trump will win in 2020 have to do with shifting attitudes within the Democratic Party during the past decade. But before we get into that, let us look at some of the smaller factors, as well as the things I think will turn out not to be much of a factor at all. These are his predictions and reason;
Factor 1: The Opposition
Editor’s note: this was written before Joe Biden’s nomination
Though this will be important, I do not think the primary reason Trump will win is the incredibly weak slate of candidates the Democrats are putting up. It is still early in the campaign season as this is being written, but so far the top two Democrats are Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren. Biden is already being portrayed as “too old” and even “racist,” while Warren has embarrassed herself by claiming to be Native American and then releasing her DNA test showing her to be almost 100% pure white Caucasian. Neither candidate is likely to prove to be a tough challenger to Trump, either in the debates or otherwise.
Factor 2: Economy
Although the economy is doing well currently, it could take a turn for the worse before November 2020. Even so, I do not think there is enough time for it to go south before the election, and if it does, most voters realize economic upswings and downturns are cyclical. During the first three years of the Trump administration, at least, the economy has been doing well, despite the predictions of many.
Factor 3: Satisfaction
What if Trump disappoints his base? This could always happen; Trump could fail to make sufficient progress on the wall before the election or he could make some bad compromise on guns with the Democrats that greatly disappoints his base. Even so, I do not think this will be disastrous (although I still hope and expect it not to happen). Most conservatives realize the alternative—that is, a Democrat gaining the White House—will be far, far worse.
Factor 4: Historical precedent
Another reason Trump will win (although still not the major reason) is that over the last three presidential administrations, there has been a trend by the American people to let the sitting president serve two full terms in office. Call it the “incumbent advantage.“ This trend spans over three separate administrations for a period of over a quarter of a century. Consider the last three presidential administrations:
Bill Clinton (Democrat): Two terms
George W. Bush (Republican): Two terms
Barack Obama (Democrat): Two terms
It seems unlikely that Trump will break this trend.
Factor 5: Phony Scandals
As soon as Trump won the 2016 presidential election, Democrats announced their desire to have him impeached. First they dragged the country through the “Russian collusion” hysteria for over two years, and when that fell through, they simply switched to the Trump “Ukraine scandal” instead. These endless “scandals” are merely going to foster resentment towards the Democrat party on the part of the American public, who will largely see through their motivations. Besides, the fact that Democrats need impeachment to remove Trump is a tacit admission that they know he will otherwise win in 2020.
Factor 6: Democrats’ Self-Hatred
A big reason for a Democratic loss is that the Democratic front runners apparently don’t believe they are qualified to run the country!
Take Beto O’Rourke, for example. He admitted that Democrats were looking for a woman or a non-white as a nominee, and that was part of the problem—not the Democrats’ attitude, but the fact that he was a white man!
In fact, he said that if people choose to vote against him because of his race or gender, “that’s a very legitimate basis upon which to make a decision.“ How can you possibly win the presidency if you don’t believe in yourself—if you believe that your race or sex disqualifies you for the presidency?
Democrats were in a virtual euphoria when Obama was elected. | Source
Democrats’ View of America in the Obama Era
But the big reason the Democrats will lose is that their party has a fundamental pessimism about the United States of America. How can you win if you don’t believe in the country you’re running for?
It was not always so. When Barack Obama was elected, the Democrat party was at it’s highest point of euphoria in perhaps decades. Remember that Obama‘s campaign slogan was “Hope and Change.”
When Obama was running for president, Democrats had great optimism, which they spread to the rest of America. Just recall some of the quotes from celebrities and media pundits after Obama announced his candidacy, won the nomination and was elected.
Celebrities’ and Journalists’ Words on Obama’s Election
“He is a community organizer like Jesus was. And now, we’re a community and he can organize us.” —Actress Susan Sarandon
“He’s like Gandhi or something. He’s got that powerful, soulful thing in him.” —Actor Alan Cumming
“I was there at the Mall. [It was] the feeling of millions of people all there sending positive energy and having hope together.” —Actress Anne Hathaway
“It’s the end of a shameful history of our relationship to African-Americans.” —Actress Ellen Burstyn
(Did you get that? “It’s the end of a shameful history.” But today, from hearing Democrats speak, you would think that race-relations are more shameful than they’ve ever been before.)
It wasn’t just celebrities. Look at some quotes from news anchors and pundits:
“Obama is a rock star.” —NBC’s Andrea Mitchell during MSNBC’s 2004 convention coverage.
“He’s the Tiger Woods of the Democratic Party right now.” —ABC’s George Stephanopoulos
“I have to tell you, you know, it’s part of reporting this case, this election, the feeling most people get when they hear Barack Obama’s speech. My — I felt this thrill going up my leg. I mean, I don’t have that too often.” —MSNBC’s Chris Matthews
It’s easy to forget the fervor just over 10 years ago when Obama was inaugurated. It was a “historic moment.” The Washington, DC public schools declared Inauguration Day a holiday. At least one university suspended classes for three hours during the ceremony and set up projection televisions in the basketball arena so that students could watch it.
Big corporations also jumped on the Obama bandwagon. Budweiser came out with a new American Ale it called “Inaugur Ale,” Obama was the guest star in Marvel Comics’ Amazing Spider-Man Number 583. Ice cream makers Ben and Jerry’s, coffee giant Starbuck’s, Southwest Airlines, and donut maker Krispy Kreme all came out with products or promotions tied to the Obama inauguration. Pepsi even changed its logo temporarily to resemble the “O” logo from the Obama campaign, accompanied by its “Refresh Our Nation” slogan.
The American flag today is in tatters in the view of the Democrats
Democrats’ View of America in the Trump Era
How times have changed! The big reason the Democrats will fail to regain the presidency in 2020 is simply this: their party has gone from the party of hope, optimism, and excitement to the party of pessimism, disgust, and resentment.
Contrast Actress Ellen Burstyn’s “It’s the end of a shameful history of our relationship to African-Americans” with what Joe Biden said in a speech to Al Sharpton’s National Action Network in January 2019—that “systematic racism“ has been “built into every aspect of our system.“ Apparently, he means that racism has been built into the very foundation of America, that it’s part of America’s very being.
Beto O’Rourke said in an interview with MSNBC, “This country has been racist as long as it’s been a country.“ In other words, America is apparently a fundamentally “racist” nation, not a fundamentally good country that merely has holdovers of racism in it. There’s a big difference between the two!
In a speech in Arkansas, O’Rourke, as part of his campaign relaunch, said that the United States of America, “though we would like to think otherwise, was founded on racism, has persisted in racism, and is racist today.” Donald Trump is apparently the Racist-in-Chief, and presumably, anyone who votes for him is just as bad.
Making matters worse is the incredibly divisive issue of reparations for the slavery of the distant American past. All of the major Democrat candidates have come out in favor of reparations. Apparently, all white Americans—every one of them, even those who came here after slavery ended—are a party to this evil, and so every one of them must pay reparations to African-Americans.
The issue of reparations for slavery may be the most divisive issue since slavery itself. | Source
Today’s Democratic Message
So here is the Democrat message: America was founded not on the principles of liberty and the Constitution, but on racism and white nationalism, and the country is steeped in these things—perhaps America is racist at its very core!
Think of what this says about the American people! If they don’t vote or think the way the Democrats do, they must be inherently bad people as well! Or, as Hillary Clinton put it, “a basket of deplorables … racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, Islamophobic – you name it.”
How can you possibly win a campaign based on insulting and smearing many of the very people you hope to vote for you? This is not an optimistic message—it is a profoundly negative, pessimistic and—dare I say it—hateful message.
New Levels of Pessimism
Now, to be honest, when one party is out of power, it always tends to portray the state of the country in a pretty poor light during a presidential election season. But this campaign is different. Democrats no longer see America as a fundamentally good country that has lost its way. Rather, they see it as a fundamentally bad country that was founded on unjust principles (“racism,” “sexism,” “xenophobia,” etc.) and must be completely deconstructed, then remade from the ground up in the Democrats’ image.
Americans are an inherently optimistic people. To carve a great nation out of the wilderness requires a heroic attitude of optimism. Americans are not drawn to pessimistic messages or pessimistic views of the country.
Trump Better Represents America
Why is it important that Trump wins reelection? Because nothing less is at stake than the very soul of America (I think both liberals and conservatives might agree with this statement).
When one political party is in power for a long time, as the Democrat party was for the eight years of Obama, it’s easy to be corrupted. (If the GOP was in power for too long, the same thing could happen).
But the bigger problem is that the Democrat party no longer seems to believe in America. Forget Ronald Reagan‘s “shining city on a hill” vision of America. The Democrats increasingly no longer consider America to be a great country. They think of it as a country with a terrible history—one that, in the words of Beto O’Rourke, was “founded on racism, built on racism, and continues to be racist to this day.”
Some Democrats openly state that a large percentage of the American people are just downright bad people—racist, bigoted, homophobic, Islamophobic, xenophobic, white nationalist, white supremacist, etc.
How can you govern a nation and a people who you think are morally bankrupt? How can you represent all the people when you think many of them are really bad people who are worthy of contempt? How can you represent a country that you are not proud of?
This is the existential threat now facing the Democrat party. Through their rhetoric, they are showing not only a lack of patriotism, love, and respect for the country they wish to govern, but a fundamental contempt for it and the people who make it up. And that is the reason why Donald Trump not only will win a second term, but why he must.
Let other reader see what you say. Post what you think in the comment section
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